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Table 5 Sensitivity analysis exploring the influence of the duration of naturally acquired immunity D I

From: 4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany

D I

Influenza A

Influenza B

Prevented

No vaccination

TIV or QIV

No vaccination

TIV

QIV

QIV-TIV

%

4

12644

6965

6743

4302

3785

517

4.6

(12548–12740)

(6896–7035)

(6681–6805)

(4256–4349)

(3741–3829)

(490–545)

(4.3-4.8)

6

9820

5597

5229

3346

2951

395

4.3

(9750–9891)

(5550–5643)

(5183–5275)

(3313–3379)

(2920–2982)

(376–414)

(4.1-4.5)

8

8482

4944

4474

2924

2595

329

4.1

(8385–8579)

(4878–5010)

(4410–4539)

(2879–2970)

(2552–2638)

(305–354)

(3.8-4.4)

10

7682

4524

4055

2631

2363

267

3.7

(7585–7780)

(4460–4589)

(3990–4119)

(2585–2676)

(2320–2406)

(243–291)

(3.3-4.0)

12

7209

4259

3766

2476

2194

282

4.1

(7110–7307)

(4195–4323)

(3702–3831)

(2432–2520)

(2152–2236)

(257–306)

(3.7-4.5)

  1. Average annual results (with 95% confidence intervals) obtained for the 20 year evaluation period (calculated from 1,000 simulations for each combination of D I and vaccination strategy in a simulated population of about 80,000 individuals (2,000 simulations each for the baseline value of 6 years; boldface line). The immunity loss rate (baseline value 1/(9.13 years)) is varied to obtain the average duration of immunity given in the D I column; these values apply to A(H1N1) and to the B lineages. Due to the higher drift frequency, the resulting durations for A(H3N2) are lower: 3.2 years, 4.5 years, 5.5 years, 6.4 years and 7.1 years, respectively. The last column shows what percentage of all influenza A and B infections which occur under TIV vaccination can additionally be prevented by QIV.