Table 4 Sensitivity analysis exploring the influence of the basic reproduction number R ₀

1.2

5880

1954

3054

1400

1075

325

9.5

(5823–5936)

(1923–1985)

(3018–3089)

(1379–1422)

(1056–1095)

(306–344)

(8.9-10.1)

1.3

7221

3061

3754

1999

1626

373

7.3

(7151–7290)

(3018–3104)

(3709–3798)

(1970–2028)

(1599–1652)

(350–396)

(6.8-7.7)

1.4

8359

4106

4363

2541

2167

374

5.5

(8276–8442)

(4055–4158)

(4311–4415)

(2506–2577)

(2133–2201)

(350–398)

(5.2-5.9)

1.5

9302

5009

4889

3063

2677

386

4.8

(9209–9395)

(4946–5071)

(4830–4947)

(3021–3105)

(2638–2717)

(360–411)

(4.4-5.1)

1.575

9820

5597

5229

3346

2951

395

4.3

(9750–9891)

(5550–5643)

(5183–5275)

(3313–3379)

(2920–2982)

(376–414)

(4.1-4.5)

1.6

10154

5787

5345

3482

3086

396

4.2

(10051–10256)

(5716–5858)

(5280–5410)

(3435–3529)

(3041–3132)

(370–422)

(3.9-4.5)

1.7

10893

6510

5736

3880

3469

411

3.9

(10784–11002)

(6433–6587)

(5664–5809)

(3826–3934)

(3419–3518)

(385–437)

(3.7-4.2)

1.8

11494

7116

6060

4218

3820

398

3.5

(11374–11614)

(7032–7200)

(5982–6138)

(4160–4277)

(3765–3875)

(372–424)

(3.3-3.7)

1.9

12063

7669

6383

4523

4139

383

3.1

(11935–12190)

(7578–7760)

(6301–6466)

(4461–4584)

(4081–4198)

(357–409)

(2.9-3.3)

2.0

12354

8183

6640

4790

4404

385

3.0

(12227–12480)

(8087–8279)

(6550–6731)

(4724–4855)

(4342–4467)

(359–411)

(2.8-3.2)