Table 1 Intervention parameters: vaccination coverage of 12-year olds, reduction in future HPV and intervention costs
Intervention | Vaccination coverage | Beta distribution for vaccination coverage | Reduction in HPV infection for central estimate of vaccination coverage only (95% uncertainty interval) | Vaccination costs (NZ$ 2011; SD as% of expected valued used for gamma distribution) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Females | Males | ||||||
HPV6/11 | HPV16/18 | HPV6/11 | HPV16/18 | ||||
Intervention 1G: Girls only program as per NZ in 2011 | Māori: 56%; assumed SD = 2% | alpha = 344, beta = 271 | Māori: 75% (57% to 83%) | Māori: 49% (41% to 59%) | Māori: 75% (55% to 83%) | Māori: 47% (41% to 53%) | $760 (10%) |
Non-Māori: 45%; assumed SD = 2% | alpha = 278, beta =340 | Non-Māori: 67% (48% to 76%) | Non-Māori: 41% (33% to 50%) | Non-Māori: 66% (47% to 74%) | Non-Māori: 37% (32% to 43%) | [($113 vaccine + $141 administrative) × 3] | |
Intervention 2G: Enhanced uptake as per Australia with school-only delivery (girls only) | 73% (no variation by ethnicity or deprivation level); assumed SD = 5% | alpha = 56.8, beta = 21.0 | 81% (64% to 88%) | 63% (53% to 73%) | 81% (65% to 88%) | 61% (53% to 67%) | $716 (10%) [($113 vaccine + $126 |
administrative) × 3] | |||||||
Intervention 1G + B: Adding boys to 1G | Māori: 56%; assumed SD = 2% | alpha = 8.14, beta = 1.86 | Māori: 77% (59% to 85%) | Māori: 67% (53% to 79%) | Māori: 78% (58% to 88%) | Māori: 73% (63% to 83%) | $760 (10%) |
Non-Māori: 45%; assumed SD = 2% | alpha = 8.09, beta = 1.90 | Non-Māori: 70% (50% to 79%) | Non-Māori: 58% (45% to 71%) | Non-Māori: 71% (51% to 80%) | Non-Māori: 65% (54% to 75%) | [($113 vaccine + $141 administrative) × 3] | |
Intervention 2G + B: Adding boys to 2G | 73%; assumed SD = 5% | alpha = 7.84, beta = 2.16 | 81% (67% to 89%) | 78% (65% to 90%) | 82% (68% to 89%) | 85% (65% to 96%) | $716 (10%) |
[($113 vaccine + $126 administrative) × 3] | |||||||