Migration intensity has no effect on peak HIV prevalence: an ecological study

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 2 Uni- and multivariate (controlling for prevalence of circumcision) regression analyses of the relationship between the migration variables and country-level peak HIV prevalence

			Univariate			Multivariate
Variable	N ^a	No. (total) GHEs > median^b	Coefficient	R²	P-value	Coefficient	P-value
Internal migration
Internal migration rate	51	1 (7)	-0.166	0.093	0.028	-0.167	0.027
Percent internal migrants	29	2 (4)	-0.145	0.149	0.038	-0.150	0.033
Percent recent internal migrants	28	2 (4)	-0.133	0.038	0.316	-0.143	0.289
Recent urban migration (Women)	28	9 (16)	0.470	0.084	0.132	0.396	0.198
Recent urban migration (Men)	22	7 (12)	0.314	0.050	0.316	0.331	0.157
Crude migration intensity (5 year) ^d	11	0 (0)	0.010	0.002	0.878	0.001	0.980
Crude migration intensity (Lifetime)	20	1 (4)	-0.124	0.025	0.503	-.089	0.594
Courgeau’s k index (5 year)	16	1 (1)	4.13	0.149	0.140	4.27	0.115
Courgeau’s k index (Lifetime)	15	0 (2)	-0.91	0.065	0.359	-0.533	0.582
International migration
Average annual net migration rate	93	2 (13)^c	0.12	0.000	0.808	0.052	0.901
Immigration rate (1960)	126	13 (19)	-0.004	0.000	0.950	-0.003	0.966
Immigration rate (2005)	141	5 (19)	-0.072	0.017	0.113	-0.071	0.125
Emigration rate	141	3 (19)	-0.162	0.042	0.014	-0.165	0.015
International movement rate	141	2 (19)	-0.109	0.046	0.010	-0.108	0.012

^aThe column heading “ N ” refers to the number of countries included in linear regression analyses. The observations were limited for most variables. See methodology section for definitions of the variables.
^bThe column “No. (total) GHEs > median” refers to the number of countries with generalized HIV epidemics (GHEs) where the dependent variable is higher than the median for the dependent variable of the countries analyzed (total No. of countries with GHEs represented in the analysis).
^cBecause this variable reflects the net migration rate, it ranges from -38 to +37. 2. Two out of the 13 countries with GHEs had migration rates below the .25 quantile or above the .75 quantile and this result is reported here.
^dCrude migration intensity is measured at the provincial or major regional level. The results for the municipal level were similar but are not shown.

ISSN: 1471-2334