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Table 2 Uni- and multivariate (controlling for prevalence of circumcision) regression analyses of the relationship between the migration variables and country-level peak HIV prevalence

From: Migration intensity has no effect on peak HIV prevalence: an ecological study

    Univariate Multivariate
Variable N a No. (total) GHEs > medianb Coefficient R2 P-value Coefficient P-value
Internal migration        
Internal migration rate 51 1 (7) -0.166 0.093 0.028 -0.167 0.027
Percent internal migrants 29 2 (4) -0.145 0.149 0.038 -0.150 0.033
Percent recent internal migrants 28 2 (4) -0.133 0.038 0.316 -0.143 0.289
Recent urban migration (Women) 28 9 (16) 0.470 0.084 0.132 0.396 0.198
Recent urban migration (Men) 22 7 (12) 0.314 0.050 0.316 0.331 0.157
Crude migration intensity (5 year) d 11 0 (0) 0.010 0.002 0.878 0.001 0.980
Crude migration intensity (Lifetime) 20 1 (4) -0.124 0.025 0.503 -.089 0.594
Courgeau’s k index (5 year) 16 1 (1) 4.13 0.149 0.140 4.27 0.115
Courgeau’s k index (Lifetime) 15 0 (2) -0.91 0.065 0.359 -0.533 0.582
International migration        
Average annual net migration rate 93 2 (13)c 0.12 0.000 0.808 0.052 0.901
Immigration rate (1960) 126 13 (19) -0.004 0.000 0.950 -0.003 0.966
Immigration rate (2005) 141 5 (19) -0.072 0.017 0.113 -0.071 0.125
Emigration rate 141 3 (19) -0.162 0.042 0.014 -0.165 0.015
International movement rate 141 2 (19) -0.109 0.046 0.010 -0.108 0.012
  1. aThe column heading N refers to the number of countries included in linear regression analyses. The observations were limited for most variables. See methodology section for definitions of the variables.
  2. bThe column “No. (total) GHEs > median” refers to the number of countries with generalized HIV epidemics (GHEs) where the dependent variable is higher than the median for the dependent variable of the countries analyzed (total No. of countries with GHEs represented in the analysis).
  3. cBecause this variable reflects the net migration rate, it ranges from -38 to +37. 2. Two out of the 13 countries with GHEs had migration rates below the .25 quantile or above the .75 quantile and this result is reported here.
  4. dCrude migration intensity is measured at the provincial or major regional level. The results for the municipal level were similar but are not shown.
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