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Table 1 Model parameters, their prior distributions (all uniform), posterior means and standard deviations (SD)

From: The potential impact of HPV-16 reactivation on prevalence in older Australians

Model

 

Prior

 

Posterior

 

Parameter

Symbol

Specification

Refs.

Mean

SD

 

 Natural history parameters

Probability of HPV-16 transmission

     

From female to male

β w m

U(0.10,1.00)

[25]

0.92

0.03

From male to female

β m w

U(0.10,1.00)

[25]

0.93

0.03

Rate of clearance of HPV-16

     

For women under 30

c w1

U(0.50,1.17)

[26–29]

0.59

0.05

For women over 30

c w2

U(0.50,1.17)

[26–29]

0.60

0.05

For men under 30

c m1

U(0.55,1.66)

[30, 31]

0.62

0.03

For men over 30

c m2

U(0.55,1.66)

[30, 31]

0.63

0.03

Probability of becoming latently infected

     

For women

p w

U(0.01,1.00)

n/a

0.11

0.04

For men

p m

U(0.01,1.00)

n/a

0.09

0.05

Rate of loss of immunity

     

For women under 30

w w1

U(0.01,2.00)

n/a

1.65

0.16

For women over 30

w w2

U(0.01,2.00)

n/a

1.67

0.15

For men under 30

w m1

U(0.01,2.00)

n/a

1.78

0.14

For men over 30

w m2

U(0.01,2.00)

n/a

1.82

0.10

 

Sexual behaviour parameters

Degree of assortativity

     

By age group

ε a

U(0.05,0.95)

n/a

0.27

0.22

By sexual activity group

ε s

U(0.05,0.95)

n/a

0.64

0.21

  1. Note that all parameters denote quantities averaged over the modelled population; the degrees of assortativity ε a and ε s are implemented as described in [32]; n/a indicates that there is no published literature to inform the choice of prior distribution and the values given are based on assumption. The choice of prior distributions is discussed in detail in Additional file 1: Technical Appendix.