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Table 2 Demographic and Clinical Predictors of Oesophageal Varices among 91 Patients with Endoscopic Diagnoses

From: Oesophageal varices, schistosomiasis, and mortality among patients admitted with haematemesis in Mwanza, Tanzania: a prospective cohort study

Demographic or clinical parameter

Patients without varices (N = 27) median (IQR) or number (%)

Patients with varices (N = 64) median (IQR) or number (%)

Univariable odds ratio [95% CI]*

P-value*

Sex

   

0.88

Female

11 (41%)

25 (39%)

1 [reference]

 

Male

16 (59%)

39 (61%)

1.07 [0.43-2.68]

 

Age, years

   

0.002

15-29

6 (22%)

11 (17%)

1 [reference]

 

30-44

6 (22%)

35 (55%)

3.18 [0.85-11.9]

 

45-59

3 (11%)

12 (19%)

2.18 [0.44-10.9]

 

≥ 60

12 (44%)

6 (9%)

0.27 [0.07-1.10]

 

Live within 5 km of the lake

   

< 0.001

No

19 (70%)

11 (17%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

8 (30%)

53 (83%)

11.4 [4.00-32.7]

 

Working as a fisherman

   

0.002***

No

27 (100%)

48 (75%)

***

 

Yes

0

16 (25%)

  

Highest education obtained

   

0.10

No or less than primary

8 (30%)

11 (17%)

1 [reference]

 

Completed primary

12 (44%)

45 (70%)

2.73 [0.90-8.29]

 

Completed secondary

1 (4%)

3 (5%)

2.18 [0.19-25.0]

 

Any college/university

6 (22%)

5 (8%)

0.61 [0.14-2.71]

 

Source of water

   

< 0.001***

Piped/river/other

27 (100%)

31 (48%)

***

 

Lake

0

33 (52%)

  

Poverty index**

   

0.61

≤ 4

7 (26%)

20 (31%)

1 [reference]

 

> 4

20 (74%)

44 (69%)

0.77 [0.28-2.11]

 

Alcohol use in the past week

   

0.19

No

19 (70%)

53 (83%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

8 (30%)

11 (17%)

0.49 [0.17-1.41]

 

Aspirin/NSAID use in the past week

   

0.54

No

26 (96%)

62 (98%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

1 (4%)

1 (2%)

0.41 [0.02-6.85]

 

Prior medical history

    

Reported history of prior haematemesis

   

0.06

No

21 (78%)

36 (56%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

6 (22%)

28 (44%)

2.72 [0.97-7.65]

 

Reported history of prior praziquantel use

   

0.008

No

22 (81%)

32 (50%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

5 (19%)

32 (50%)

4.40 [1.48-13.1]

 

Clinical examination

    

Mean arterial blood pressure (mmHg)

83 (70–87)

70 (63–82)

0.67 [0.49-0.93]+

0.02

Heart rate (beats per minute)

98 (88–110)

105 (86–111)

1.00 [0.98-1.03]

0.78

Ascites

   

0.002

No

24 (89%)

32 (50%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

3 (11%)

32 (50%)

8.00 [2.18-29.2]

 

Hepatomegaly

   

0.98

No

24 (89%)

57 (89%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

3 (11%)

7 (11%)

0.92 [0.23-4.12]

 

Splenomegaly

   

< 0.001

No

23 (85%)

5 (8%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

4 (15%)

59 (92%)

67.9 [16.7-275]

 

Encephalopathy

   

0.54

No

26 (96%)

63 (98%)

1 [reference]

 

Yes

1 (4%)

1 (2%)

0.41 [0.02-6.85]

 

Investigations

    

Hepatitis B surface Ag

   

0.03

Negative

25 (93%)

45 (70%)

1 [reference]

 

Positive

2 (7%)

19 (30%)

5.27 [1.14 – 24.5]

 

Anti-Hepatitis C Ab

   

0.54

Negative

26 (96%)

63 (98%)

1 [reference]

 

Positive

1 (4%)

1 (2%)

0.41 [0.02-6.85]

 

HIV

   

0.63

Negative

26 (96%)

60 (94%)

1 [reference]

 

Positive

1 (4%)

4 (6%)

1.73 [0.18 – 16.3]

 

Schistosoma CCA

   

0.01

Negative

19 (70%)

26 (41%)

1 [reference]

 

Positive

8 (30%)

38 (59%)

3.47 [1.32-9.11]

 

Portal vein, mm

   

< 0.001

< 13

25 (93%)

3 (5%)

1 [reference]

 

≥ 13

2 (7%)

61 (95%)

254 [40.0-1614]

 

Haemoglobin (g/dL)

6.0 (4.0-9.9)

4.2 (3.6-5.6)

0.76 [0.64-0.91]

0.002

MCV (fl)

82 (71–89)

74 (67–80)

0.59 [0.37-0.92]+

0.02

Platelets (109/L)

150 (103–215)

103 (55–143)

0.70 [0.45-1.11]++

0.13

PTT (seconds)

28 (26–32)

30 (27–35)

1.69 [0.75-3.79]+

0.20

INR (ratio)

1.2 (1.0-1.4)

1.4 (1.1-1.7)

1.37 [0.51-3.63]

0.53

Total bilirubin (μmol/L)

8.8 (5.2-12.7)

13.2 (7.7-21.7)

1.07 [1.01-1.16]

0.04

Albumin (g/L)

35 (30–44)

32 (28–39)

0.74 [0.44-1.24]+

0.25

AST (U/L)

22 (19–29)

28 (19–49)

1.23 [0.96-1.57]+

0.10

ALT (U/L)

17 (14–27)

23 (15–47)

1.20 [0.97-1.49]

0.09

  1. *Results from logistic regression models (Wald p-values).
  2. **Poverty index > 4 indicates that a person does not have multidimensional poverty.
  3. ***Unable to calculate odds ratio due to a zero; p-value from Fisher's exact test.
  4. +Per 10 units higher.
  5. ++Per 100 units higher.