Table 2 Effectiveness (Life years saved per 10,000) of vaccination strategies for moderate pandemics (R = 1.9 and CFR = 0.25%) and severe pandemics (R = 2.7 and CFR = 1.5%)

Scenario 1: no pandemic

none

-

-

Pre-emptive + Reactive vaccination

Reactive vaccination

Scenario 2: pandemic with virus which does not match pre-emptive vaccine i.e. vaccine efficacy of 0%

none

4*

4*

8 weeks SD + AV

253

253

Sustained SD + AV

421

421

Pre-emptive vaccination

Reactive vaccination

Scenario 3: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 30%

none

312

4*

8 weeks SD + AV

415

253

Sustained SD + AV

429

421

Pre-emptive vaccination

Reactive vaccination

Scenario 4: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 75%

none

453

4*

8 weeks SD + AV

460

253

Sustained SD + AV

462

421

Extreme pandemics (R = 2.7 and CFR = 1.5%)

Scenarios

SD and AV intervention

Total cost ($) per 10,000 population

Pre-emptive vaccination

Reactive vaccination

Scenario 1: no pandemic

none

-

-

Pre-emptive + Reactive vaccination

Reactive vaccination

Scenario 2: pandemic with virus which does not match pre-emptive vaccine i.e. vaccine efficacy of 0%

none

9*

9*

8 weeks SD + AV

1,219

1,219

Sustained SD + AV

2,720

2,720

Pre-emptive vaccination

Reactive vaccination

Scenario 3: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 30%

none

1,680

9*

8 weeks SD + AV

2,719

1,219

Sustained SD + AV

3,134

2,720

Pre-emptive vaccination

Reactive vaccination

Scenario 4: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 75%

none

3,499

9*

8 weeks SD + AV

3,507

1,219

Sustained SD + AV

3,510

2,720