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Table 2 Effectiveness (Life years saved per 10,000) of vaccination strategies for moderate pandemics (R = 1.9 and CFR = 0.25%) and severe pandemics (R = 2.7 and CFR = 1.5%)

From: A model-based economic analysis of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination cost-effectiveness

  Moderate pandemics (R = 1.9 and CFR = 0.25%)
Scenarios SD and AV intervention Life years saved (LYS) per 10,000 population
Pre-emptive vaccination Reactive vaccination
Scenario 1: no pandemic none - -
  Pre-emptive + Reactive vaccination Reactive vaccination
Scenario 2: pandemic with virus which does not match pre-emptive vaccine i.e. vaccine efficacy of 0% none 4* 4*
8 weeks SD + AV 253 253
Sustained SD + AV 421 421
  Pre-emptive vaccination Reactive vaccination
Scenario 3: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 30% none 312 4*
8 weeks SD + AV 415 253
Sustained SD + AV 429 421
  Pre-emptive vaccination Reactive vaccination
Scenario 4: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 75% none 453 4*
8 weeks SD + AV 460 253
Sustained SD + AV 462 421
  Extreme pandemics (R = 2.7 and CFR = 1.5%)
Scenarios SD and AV intervention Total cost ($) per 10,000 population
Pre-emptive vaccination Reactive vaccination
Scenario 1: no pandemic none - -
  Pre-emptive + Reactive vaccination Reactive vaccination
Scenario 2: pandemic with virus which does not match pre-emptive vaccine i.e. vaccine efficacy of 0% none 9* 9*
8 weeks SD + AV 1,219 1,219
Sustained SD + AV 2,720 2,720
  Pre-emptive vaccination Reactive vaccination
Scenario 3: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 30% none 1,680 9*
8 weeks SD + AV 2,719 1,219
Sustained SD + AV 3,134 2,720
  Pre-emptive vaccination Reactive vaccination
Scenario 4: pandemic with virus which matches pre-emptive vaccine with efficacy of 75% none 3,499 9*
8 weeks SD + AV 3,507 1,219
Sustained SD + AV 3,510 2,720
  1. *indicates life years saved (LYS) value not statistically significantly different from zero due to stochastic simulation variation.