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Table 1 Projected impact from microbicide intervention*

From: Cost-effectiveness of tenofovir gel in urban South Africa: model projections of HIV impact and threshold product prices

  Mean efficacies Low efficacies High efficacies
(54% HIV efficacy and 71% HSV-2 efficacy) (8% HIV efficacy and 30% HSV-2 efficacy) (83% HIV efficacy and 97% HSV-2 efficacy)
  Trial consistency of gel use (72%) Reduced consistency of gel use (used in 50% of sex-acts) Trial consistency of gel use (72%) Reduced consistency of gel use (used in 50% of sex-acts) Trial consistency of gel use (72%) Reduced consistency of gel use (used in 50% of sex-acts)
HIV impact projections*:
Percentage reduction in population HIV incidence by year 15 12.5% 8.7% 2.0% 1.4% 19.0% 13.3%
(11.5-12.7%) (8–8.8%) (1.8-2.0%) (1.3-1.4%) (17.6-19.3%) (12.3-13.5%)
Cumulative number of HIV infections averted over 15 years 55,366 38,382 8,661 6,011 85,026 58,900
(49,309-58,173) (34,132-40,297) (7,708-9,255) (5,348-6,422) (75,845-89,447) (52,447-61,890)
Cumulative number of HIV infections averted per 100,000 population 970 672 152 105 1,489 1,031
(864-1,019) (598-706) (132-162) (94-112) (1,328-1,560) (918-1,084)
Number of sex-acts protected by gel per HIV infection averted 1,317 1,896 8,372 12,060 861 1,239
(1,266-1,481) (1,853-2,133) (8,176-9,257) (11,779-13,338) (839–966) (1,209-1,392)
HSV-2 impact projections*:
Percentage reduction in population HSV-2 incidence in year 15 4.9% 3.4% 1.6% 1.1% 7.0% 4.8%
(4.7-5.5%) (3.2-3.7%) (1.5-1.8%) (1.0-1.2%) (6.8-7.9%) (4.6-5.4%)
Cumulative number of HSV-2 infections averted over 15 years 83,997 (76,312-88,153) 57,343 (52,139-60,191) 27,181 (24,537-28,617) 18,723 (16,930-19,711) 121,846 (110,559-127,721) 82,662 (75,047-86,655)
Cumulative number of HSV-2 infections averted per 100,000 population 1,471 1,004 476 327 2,133 1,447
(1,336-1,543) (913-1,054) (430-501) (296-345) (1,936-2,236) (1,314-1,518)
Number of sex-acts protected by gel per HSV-2 infection averted 868 1,269 2,668 3,872 601 883
(831-977) (1,213-1,428) (2,566-2,994) (3,721-4,346) (575-677) (845-994)
  1. *Assuming gel only used by HIV-negative women, and levels of condom use are maintained after microbicide introduction.