Figure 1

Schematic representation of the progression-of-disease Markov models simulating the progression to cervical cancer (A) and genital warts (B). Individuals progress or regress from one health state to another according to disease-specific transition probabilities (solid lines) or women can remain in the same health state during consecutive cycles (dotted lines). Vaccine efficacy was modelled by reducing the risk of infection. Cycle length was set at 6 months’.