Skip to main content

Table 4 ADL time-series regression coefficients of the temperature and HS associated with human brucellosis, 2004–2009

From: Epidemiological features and risk factors associated with the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in China

 

Variablesa

Model I

Model II

Model III

β(95% CI) for temperature

β(95% CI) for HS

β(95% CI) for temperature

β(95% CI) for HS

Inner

Lag0

−0.019 (−0.023 to −0.016)

−0.028 (−0.043 to −0.013)

−0.019 (−0.031 to −0.008)

0.033 (−0.011 to 0.076)

Mongoliab

Lag1

−0.019 (−0.021 to −0.017)

−0.044 (−0.055 to −0.033)

−0.015 (−0.024 to −0.006)

0.009 (−0.024 to 0.043)

 

Lag2

−0.018 (−0.020 to −0.017)

−0.060 (−0.067 to −0.052)

−0.011 (−0.018 to −0.004)

−0.014 (−0.041 to 0.013)

 

Lag3

−0.018 (−0.020 to −0.016)

−0.076 (−0.082 to −0.069)

−0.007 (−0.013 to −0.0003)

−0.037 (−0.063 to −0.011)

 

Lag4

−0.017(−0.020 to −0.015)

−0.091 (−0.100 to −0.082)

−0.002 (−0.005 to −0.010)

−0.060 (−0.091 to −0.029)

 

Lag5

−0.017(−0.021 to −0.013)

−0.107 (−0.120 to −0.094)

0.002 (−0.008 to 0.012)

−0.083 (−0.123 to −0.043)

 

Constant term

1.152 (0.946 to 1.357)

10.738 (9.778 to 11.698)

4.706 (1.037 to 8.374)

 

Incidence(−1)

0.846 (0.795 to 0.898)

0.822 (0.772 to 0.873)

0.832 (0.784 to 0.880)

 

R-square

0.925

0.926

0.923

 

AIC

2.088

2.066

2.219

 

RMS error

1.300

1.230

1.180

Heilongjiangc

Lag0

−0.005 (−0.006 to −0.005)

−0.005 (−0.008 to −0.001)

−0.005 (−0.007 to −0.004)

0.005 (−0.0003 to 0.010)

 

Lag1

−0.005 (−0.005 to −0.004)

−0.009 (−0.012 to −0.007)

−0.005 (−0.006 to −0.004)

0.003 (−0.002 to 0.007)

 

Lag2

−0.004 (−0.005 to −0.004)

−0.014 (−0.016 to −0.012)

−0.004 (−0.005 to −0.003)

0.001 (−0.004 to 0.005)

 

Lag3

−0.004 (−0.004 to −0.003)

−0.019 (−0.021 to −0.017)

−0.003 (−0.004 to −0.002)

−0.002 (−0.006 to 0.003)

 

Lag4

−0.003 (−0.004 to −0.002)

−0.024 (−0.027 to −0.020)

−0.002 (−0.003 to −0.002)

−0.004 (−0.009 to 0.001)

 

Lag5

−0.002 (−0.003 to −0.001)

-

−0.002 (−0.003 to −0.001)

-

 

Lag6

−0.002 (−0.003 to −0.001)

-

−0.001 (−0.002 to −0.001)

-

 

Constant term

0.267 (0.196 to 0.339)

1.669 (1.494 to 1.844)

0.206 (−0.239 to 0.650)

 

Incidence(−1)

0.741 (0.659 to 0.823)

0.776 (0.716 to 0.835)

0.745 (0.659 to 0.830)

 

R-square

0.910

0.880

0.913

 

AIC

−0.969

−0.708

−0.938

 

RMS error

0.213

0.258

0.216

Province

Variables a

Model I

Model II

Model III

β(95% CI) for temperature

β(95% CI) for HS

β(95% CI) for temperature

β(95% CI) for HS

Shanxid

Lag0

−0.007 (−0.008 to −0.005)

−0.006 (−0.010 to −0.002)

−0.003 (−0.005 to −0.0003)

−0.007 (−0.013 to −0.0004)

 

Lag1

−0.007 (−0.007 to −0.006)

−0.001 (−0.013 to −0.006)

−0.004 (−0.005 to −0.002)

−0.007 (−0.012 to −0.002)

 

Lag2

−0.006 (−0.007 to −0.005)

−0.013 (−0.015 to −0.010)

−0.005 (−0.005 to −0.004)

−0.007 (−0.011 to −0.003)

 

Lag3

−0.006 (−0.006 to −0.005)

−0.016 (−0.019 to −0.014)

−0.005 (−0.006 to −0.004)

−0.007 (−0.010 to −0.003)

 

Lag4

−0.005 (−0.006 to −0.004)

−0.020 (−0.022 to −0.017)

−0.006 (−0.008 to −0.004)

−0.007 (−0.010 to −0.003)

 

Lag5

−0.005 (−0.006 to −0.004)

−0.023 (−0.026 to −0.020)

−0.007 (−0.010 to −0.004)

−0.007 (−0.010 to −0.003)

 

Lag6

-

−0.026 (−0.031 to −0.022)

-

−0.006 (−0.011 to −0.002)

 

Lag7

-

−0.030 (−0.035 to −0.025)

-

−0.006 (−0.012 to −0.001)

 

Constant term

0.554 (0.468 to 0.640)

3.230 (2.818 to 3.642)

1.676 (1.16 to 2.19)

 

Incidence(−1)

0.781 (0.716 to 0.846)

0.540 (0.457 to 0.622)

0.609 (0.519 to 0.698)

 

R-square

0.893

0.860

0.903

 

AIC

−0.376

−0.104

−0.506

 

RMS error

0.253

0.303

0.213

Jiline

Lag0

−0.004 (−0.004 to −0.003)

   
 

Lag1

−0.003 (−0.004 to −0.003)

   
 

Lag2

−0.003 (−0.003 to −0.002)

   
 

Lag3

−0.002 (−0.002 to −0.002)

   
 

Lag4

−0.001 (−0.002 to −0.001)

   
 

Lag5

−0.001 (−0.002 to −0.0001)

   
 

Constant term

0.123 (0.090 to 0.157)

   
 

Incidence(−1)

0.914 (0.867 to 0.962)

   
 

R-square

0.894

   
 

AIC

−0.800

   
 

RMS error

0.376

   
  1. a. Lagx: the lagged months; HS: monthly hours of sunshine; Unit: temperature (degree centigrade), monthly hours of sunshine (10 hours).
  2. b. The model including average wind velocity had a lower R-square (0.882) and higher RMS error (1.66) and it was not shown in the table. The purely autoregressive model had a R-square 0.788.
  3. c. The model including rainfall had lower R-squares (0.874) and higher RMS errors (0.337) and it was not shown in the table. The purely autoregressive model had a R-square 0.714.
  4. d. The model including rainfall or wind velocity had lower R-squares (0.859, 0.827) and higher RMS errors (0.334, 0.339) and they were not shown in the table. The purely autoregressive model had a R-square 0.753.
  5. e. The model including rainfall had lower R-squares (0.892) and higher RMS errors (0.382) and it was not shown in the table. The purely autoregressive model had a R-square 0.818.
Back to article page

BMC Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 1471-2334

Contact us