Skip to main content

Table 3 Predicted and error rates of the single ARIMA model and ARIMA-BPNN combined model in 2012

From: The development of a combined mathematical model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai, China

Month Morbidity (per 100,000 pop.) ARIMA model ARIMA-BPNN model
   Predicted rate Error rate Predicted rate Error rate
Jan 0.226 0.362 0.602 0.345 0.527
Feb 0.317 0.334 0.054 0.331 0.044
Mar 0.282 0.347 0.230 0.306 0.085
Apr 0.252 0.293 0.163 0.282 0.119
May 0.265 0.215 0.189 0.254 0.042
Jun 0.200 0.161 0.195 0.214 0.070
Jul 0.139 0.152 0.094 0.165 0.187
Aug 0.126 0.135 0.071 0.126 0.000
Sep 0.096 0.138 0.438 0.117 0.219
Oct 0.104 0.140 0.346 0.131 0.260
Nov 0.113 0.162 0.434 0.174 0.540
Dec 0.191 0.156 0.183 0.187 0.021
MER    0.250   0.176
  1. ARIMA, Autoregressive integrated moving average model; BPNN, Back propagation neural network; MER, Mean error rate.