Skip to main content

Table 3 Predicted and error rates of the single ARIMA model and ARIMA-BPNN combined model in 2012

From: The development of a combined mathematical model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai, China

Month

Morbidity (per 100,000 pop.)

ARIMA model

ARIMA-BPNN model

  

Predicted rate

Error rate

Predicted rate

Error rate

Jan

0.226

0.362

0.602

0.345

0.527

Feb

0.317

0.334

0.054

0.331

0.044

Mar

0.282

0.347

0.230

0.306

0.085

Apr

0.252

0.293

0.163

0.282

0.119

May

0.265

0.215

0.189

0.254

0.042

Jun

0.200

0.161

0.195

0.214

0.070

Jul

0.139

0.152

0.094

0.165

0.187

Aug

0.126

0.135

0.071

0.126

0.000

Sep

0.096

0.138

0.438

0.117

0.219

Oct

0.104

0.140

0.346

0.131

0.260

Nov

0.113

0.162

0.434

0.174

0.540

Dec

0.191

0.156

0.183

0.187

0.021

MER

  

0.250

 

0.176

  1. ARIMA, Autoregressive integrated moving average model; BPNN, Back propagation neural network; MER, Mean error rate.