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Figure 2 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Figure 2

From: The development of a combined mathematical model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai, China

Figure 2

Comparison of actual, predicted and forecasted morbidity rates of hepatitis E (2000–2013) in Shanghai, China. The x-axis represents calendar time from 2000 to 2013. The y-axis represents actual morbidity rates and predicted/forecasted morbidity values of hepatitis E (per 100,000 population). From January 2001 to December 2012, morbidity values were predicted using the best-fitting ARIMA model or the ARIMA-BPNN model. From January 2013 to December 2013, morbidity values were forecasted using the best-fitting ARIMA model or the ARIMA-BPNN model. Forecast values for the two models were 0.259 and 0.372 (Jan), 0.305 and 0.356 (Feb), 0.301 and 0.315 (Mar), 0.259 and 0.290 (Apr), 0.215 and 0.256 (May), 0.161 and 0.216 (Jun), 0.138 and 0.163 (Jul), 0.123 and 0.120 (Aug), 0.114 and 0.095 (Sep), 0.118 and 0.101 (Oct), 0.134 and 0.146 (Nov), 0.158 and 0.187 (Dec), respectively. 95% confidence intervals are presented.

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