TY - JOUR AU - Ren, Hong AU - Li, Jian AU - Yuan, Zheng-An AU - Hu, Jia-Yu AU - Yu, Yan AU - Lu, Yi-Han PY - 2013 DA - 2013/09/08 TI - The development of a combined mathematical model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai, China JO - BMC Infectious Diseases SP - 421 VL - 13 IS - 1 AB - Sporadic hepatitis E has become an important public health concern in China. Accurate forecasting of the incidence of hepatitis E is needed to better plan future medical needs. Few mathematical models can be used because hepatitis E morbidity data has both linear and nonlinear patterns. We developed a combined mathematical model using an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and a back propagation neural network (BPNN) to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E. SN - 1471-2334 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-13-421 DO - 10.1186/1471-2334-13-421 ID - Ren2013 ER -