Table 2 Epidemiological state transitions of the event-driven, stochastic model
Event | Transition probability | State change |
|---|---|---|
Antibiotic treatment of uncolonized individual | αUδt | U-1, U v +1 |
exposed individual | αEδt | E-1, E v +1 |
colonized individual | αCδt | C-1, C v +1 |
Gut microbiota recovery of uncolonized individual | λU v δt | U v -1, U+1 |
exposed individual | λE v δt | E v -1, E+1 |
colonized individual | λC v δt | C v -1, C+1 |
Exposure of individual without recent Ab use | β[(C+C v +DQ)U/N]δt | U-1, E+1 |
individual with recent Ab use | β[(C+C v +DQ)U v /N]δt | U v -1, E v +1 |
Colonization of individual without recent Ab use | ηEδt | E-1, C+1 |
individual with recent Ab use | ηE v δt | E v -1, C v +1 |
Symptoms develop in indiv. without recent Ab use | θCδt | C-1, D+1 |
individual with recent Ab use | θ v Cvδt | C v -1, D+1 |
Symptoms resolve | ζDδt | D-1, C v +1 |
Full clearance following treatment | (1-σ)ρDδt | D-1, U v +1 |
Treatment does not result in full clearance | σρDδt | D-1, E v +1 |