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Table 8 Impact of efficacy and transmission setting on the number and cost of events averted

From: Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers

 

% decrease in public health impact (events averted)

% increase in cost/event averted

Increase in cost/case averted 2011 USD, undiscounted (discounted)

Uncomplicated cases

Efficacy

13

16

3 (2)

Transmission

21

26

5 (3)

Both

33

47

9 (5)

Severe cases

Efficacy

14

16

91 (50)

Transmission

21

26

145 (80)

Both

31

46

258 (142)

Deaths

Efficacy

19

24

650 (358)

Transmission

21

26

711 (392)

Both

36

57

1528 (842)

DALYs

Efficacy

18

22

23 (12)

Transmission

21

26

27 (14)

Both

35

54

55 (30)

  1. Legend: Table shows the results from the scenarios modeled as part of the sensitivity analysis. Percentage decrease or increase in public health impact or cost is relative to the demonstration scenario results, presented in Table 7. “Efficacy” refers to a decrease in the vaccine efficacy from 85% in the demonstration scenario to 75%. “Transmission” refers to a change in future transmission from the demonstration scenario, in which one-quarter of the population in each category of risk was shifted to the next lowest category, to the sensitivity analysis, in which one-half the population was at reduced risk of infection. “Both” refers to a scenario in which both efficacy and transmission setting were decreased as described above.