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Table 8 Impact of efficacy and transmission setting on the number and cost of events averted

From: Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers

  % decrease in public health impact (events averted) % increase in cost/event averted Increase in cost/case averted 2011 USD, undiscounted (discounted)
Uncomplicated cases
Efficacy 13 16 3 (2)
Transmission 21 26 5 (3)
Both 33 47 9 (5)
Severe cases
Efficacy 14 16 91 (50)
Transmission 21 26 145 (80)
Both 31 46 258 (142)
Deaths
Efficacy 19 24 650 (358)
Transmission 21 26 711 (392)
Both 36 57 1528 (842)
DALYs
Efficacy 18 22 23 (12)
Transmission 21 26 27 (14)
Both 35 54 55 (30)
  1. Legend: Table shows the results from the scenarios modeled as part of the sensitivity analysis. Percentage decrease or increase in public health impact or cost is relative to the demonstration scenario results, presented in Table 7. “Efficacy” refers to a decrease in the vaccine efficacy from 85% in the demonstration scenario to 75%. “Transmission” refers to a change in future transmission from the demonstration scenario, in which one-quarter of the population in each category of risk was shifted to the next lowest category, to the sensitivity analysis, in which one-half the population was at reduced risk of infection. “Both” refers to a scenario in which both efficacy and transmission setting were decreased as described above.