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Table 6 Summary of values & vaccine characteristics in the demonstration scenario

From: Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers

Parameter name Assumed value Rationale or source, as applicable
Supply and demand module
Time period modeled 10 years Mid-range period that is long enough to allow for countries to implement and observe impact; a longer period would increase model uncertainty
Year of vaccine approval 2016 Date in the medium term selected to avoid the increased model uncertainty associated with longer time horizons
Countries 40 African countries with high disease burden 100 deaths/year or malaria mortality rate of 10 deaths per 100,000 per year or greater [45]
Years between vaccine approval and country adoption 0-10, based on each country’s adoption of Haemophilus influenza type B (Hib) vaccine (see Methods) See Methods under “Supply and demand forecast”
Maximum coverage 3rd dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP3) level of each country, as projected (see Methods) Demonstration scenario assumes routine vaccination (below); DTP3 coverage is therefore a realistic estimate of what might be achieved
Years for each country to reach maximum coverage 1 to 3, based upon each country’s adoption of Hib vaccine (see Methods) See Methods under “Supply and demand forecast”
Number of doses per regimen 3 Consistent with other, licensed vaccines
Vaccine wastage 10% (assumed 2 doses/vial) Consistent with other, licensed vaccines
Target population Infants Infants carry the greatest burden of disease [20]
Public health module
Type of vaccine Pre-erythrocytic The most advanced candidate is a pre-erythrocytic vaccine and therefore the most likely type to first reach 85% efficacy
Vaccine efficacy against clinical disease 85% Consistent with the strategic goal of the 2006 Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap
Decay rate of efficacy against infection 4 years Consistent with the strategic goal of the 2006 Malaria Vaccine Technology Roadmap
Future malaria transmission ¼ of the population in each Entomological Inoculation Rate category shifted to the next lowest by 2020 (0, 0.1, 1, 10, 100) Assumes continued scale-up of other interventions and progress toward global targets
Mode of vaccine delivery Routine infant immunization (Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI)) Infants carry the greatest burden of disease and are routinely vaccinated via the EPI system
Booster compliance rate Not used in demo. scenario None assumed
Financial module
Vaccine price $5/dose There is no price yet determined for any potential malaria vaccine; consistent with the cost of other new vaccines for low-income countries
Cost of injection equipment and disposal $0.07/dose See Methods section under Implementation cost and financing requirements [42, 44, 46]
Cost of vaccine delivery, including: $0.33/dose Consistent with experience with pentavalent vaccine in Ethiopia [42, 44, 46]
 • Cold chain requirement of 2-8°C
 • Personnel and training
Discount rates 0% and 5% Consistent with the full range of rates used in the sub-Saharan context [43]