Figure 5

Development of HCAI model methods used over time (1993–2011). Application of key modelling characteristics and development over time. Figure 5 a: Model approach Proportion of models using a deterministic vs. stochastic and a compartmental vs individual-based modelling approach by the total number of publications in each time period. Note that the categories are not exclusive, i.e. whereas all individual-based models identified are stochastic, compartmental models may be deterministic or stochastic. Moreover, a proportion of studies use a combination of the above listed modelling approaches (e.g. a deterministic compartmental model complemented by a stochastic individual-based model). Figure 5 b Model methods Proportion of models that are fitted to data, have included uncertainty and are validated by consultation of two different datasets by total number of publications in each time period. Figure 5 c Methods used for characterising parameter uncertainty: Proportion of models that have employed uni-variate, vs bi-variate vs probabilistic sensitivity analysis by total number of publications that incorporated parameter uncertainty in each time period.