Table 1 Clinical data parameters used in the model; base-case and sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base-case estimate | Deterministic | Probabilistic | ||||
Reference | Reference | Distribution | SD | |||
Within first 100 days of prophylaxis | ||||||
Probability of an invasive fungal infection (IFI) | ||||||
Posaconazole | 0.05 | Cornely[10] | 0.0344 -0.0573 | Assumption | Beta | 0.0120 |
SAT | 0.11 | Cornely[10] | 0.0825 -0.1375 | Assumption | Beta | 0.0181 |
Probability of an IFI-related death | ||||||
Posaconazole | 0.36 | Cornely[10] | 0.2678 -0.4464 | Assumption | Beta | 0.1247 |
SAT | 0.48 | Cornely[10] | 0.3636-0.6060 | Assumption | Beta | 0.0857 |
Probability of death from other causes (non IFI-related) | ||||||
Posaconazole | 0.16 | Cornely[10] | 0.1185-0.1975 | Assumption | Beta | 0.0148 |
SAT | 0.16 | Cornely[10] | 0.1185-0.1975 | Assumption | Beta | 0.0148 |
After first 100 days of prophylaxis | ||||||
Relative survival associated with acute myelogenous leukaemia (AML) | ||||||
IFI | 0.21 | NCI[32] | 0.16-0.26 | Assumption | Gamma | 0.000 |
No IFI | 0.21 | NCI[32] | 0.16-0.26 | Assumption | Gamma | 0.000 |
Relative survival associated with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) | ||||||
IFI | 0.08 | Kantarjian[33] | 0.06-0.10 | Assumption | Gamma | 0.000 |
No IFI | 0.08 | Kantarjian[33] | 0.06-0.10 | Assumption | Gamma | 0.000 |