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Table 2 Model parameter estimates for the Richards model using weekly confirmed pH1N1 hospitalization data in Taiwan from e-week 29 (7/12-7/18) of 2009 to e-week 12 (3/21-3/27) of 2010.

From: Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves

Time Period

Turning point ti

(95% C.I.)

Growth rate r

(95% C.I.)

Max case number K3

(95% C.I.)

Reproduction number R

e-weeks 29-39

7.47

(7.12, 7.82)

1.38

(0.92, 1.83)

304

(290, 319)

1.19

(1.11, 1.27)

e-weeks 39-122

6.63

(5.64, 7.62)

0.38

(0.32, 0.45)

9081

(900, 916)

1.03

(1.02, 1.05)

  1. The first wave spans e-weeks 29-39 (7/12/09-9/26/09) of 2009; and the second wave from e-week 39 of 2009 to e-week-12 (9/27/09-3/27/10) of 2010; the estimate of effective reproduction number R are obtained by using estimate of T from pH1N1 data of Mexico: T = 1.91 (95% CI: 1.30-2.71) [25].
  2. 1Estimated max case number for both waves.
  3. 2e-week 12 of 2010.
  4. 3The actual number of confirmed hospitalizations is 297 for the first wave and 910 for the two waves.
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BMC Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 1471-2334

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