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Table 1 Model parameter estimates for the Richards model using weekly confirmed pH1N1 case data by sample receiving week in Taiwan from e-week 27 (6/28-7/4) of 2009 to e-week 12 (3/21-3/27) of 2010.

From: Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves

Time Period

Turning point ti

(95% C.I.)

Growth rate r

(95% C.I.)

Max case number K3

(95% C.I.)

Reproduction number R

e-weeks 27-39

8.50

(7.62, 9.38)

0.50

(0.37, 0.62)

1836

(1676, 1996)

1.14

(1.04, 1.25)

e-weeks 39-122

7.96

(7.42, 8.50)

0.06

(0.05, 0.06)

32141

(3194, 3233)

1.02

(1.01, 1.02)

  1. The first summer wave spanning e-weeks 27-39 of 2009 (6/28-9/26); the second fall/winter wave spanning e-week 39 of 2009 to e-week 12 of 2010 (9/20/2009-3/27/2010); the estimate of effective reproduction number R are obtained by using estimate of T from pH1N1 data of Mexico: T = 1.91 (95% CI: 1.30-2.71) [25].
  2. 1Estimated max case number for both waves.
  3. 2e-week 12 of 2010.
  4. 3The actual confirmed case number (approximated by K in our model) is 1742 during the first wave and 3238 for the two waves.