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Table 1 Model parameter estimates for the Richards model using weekly confirmed pH1N1 case data by sample receiving week in Taiwan from e-week 27 (6/28-7/4) of 2009 to e-week 12 (3/21-3/27) of 2010.

From: Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves

Time Period Turning point ti
(95% C.I.)
Growth rate r
(95% C.I.)
Max case number K3
(95% C.I.)
Reproduction number R
e-weeks 27-39 8.50
(7.62, 9.38)
0.50
(0.37, 0.62)
1836
(1676, 1996)
1.14
(1.04, 1.25)
e-weeks 39-122 7.96
(7.42, 8.50)
0.06
(0.05, 0.06)
32141
(3194, 3233)
1.02
(1.01, 1.02)
  1. The first summer wave spanning e-weeks 27-39 of 2009 (6/28-9/26); the second fall/winter wave spanning e-week 39 of 2009 to e-week 12 of 2010 (9/20/2009-3/27/2010); the estimate of effective reproduction number R are obtained by using estimate of T from pH1N1 data of Mexico: T = 1.91 (95% CI: 1.30-2.71) [25].
  2. 1Estimated max case number for both waves.
  3. 2e-week 12 of 2010.
  4. 3The actual confirmed case number (approximated by K in our model) is 1742 during the first wave and 3238 for the two waves.