Table 1 Parameters used in simulations
Parameter | Description | Value/Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
p | probability of being confirmed | 0.2 or 0.65 | |
α | relative infectiousness of unconfirmed class | 0.5 | |
t a | start of vaccination campaign (day) | 20, 50, or 80 | set to occur 10, 40, or 70 days after t 0 |
t b | end of vaccination campaign (day) | Variable | depends on campaign start and duration |
t d | depletion of vaccine stockpile (day) | Variable | depends on stockpile size; see |
t 0 | time of initiating pulse (day) | 10 | arbitrary |
x 0 | Amplitude of initiating pulse (individuals) | 1 | previous epidemiological model [62] |
a | width of initiating pulse (days) | 1 | previous epidemiological model [62] |
b | mean probability of infection per contact | 0.476 or 0.346 | adjusted as function of p so R 0* = 2.0; see sea-sonal/pandemic R 0 values [1, 87] |
c | rate of recovery (1/days) | 1/7 | based on symptoms, viral shedding, cytokine levels [55, 58, 59] |
N | total population size | 108 | |
| vaccine stockpile size | 30 * 106 | based on 30% coverage; see vaccine production/distribution data [21, 60, 61] |
| maximum number of vaccines per day | 105 - 107 | based on vaccination clinic modeling and clinic data [25–30] |
k | proportion of eligible vaccinated per day | 0.001 - 0.1 (0.1-10%) | |
δ | infection-related death rate (1/days) | 10-6 | based on U.S. viral surveillance data [88] |
