Table 3 Total number of cases, peak number of cases and peak day under HScontrol with various alert values
Alert value (infection cases) | Probability of outbreak (%) | Total cases | Compared with 20 (%) | 95% CI | Peak cases | Compared with 20 (%) | 95% CI | Peak day | Compared with 20 (%) | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20 | 97 | 4494 | Â | 4219-4781 | 134 | Â | 107-160 | 48 | Â | 36-71 |
50 | 98 | 4503 | 100.2 | 4209-4832 | 142 | 106.0 | 119-174 | 38 | 79.2 | 23-51 |
100 | 98 | 4520 | 100.6 | 4152-4869 | 152 | 113.4 | 110-191 | 37 | 77.1 | 24-51 |
200 | 99 | 4586 | 102.0 | 4239-4839 | 173 | 129.1 | 139-208 | 31 | 64.6 | 23-44 |
500 | 97 | 4743 | 105.5 | 4454-5083 | 210 | 156.7 | 168-261 | 29 | 60.4 | 20-37 |
1000 | 97 | 4954 | 110.2 | 4752-5163 | 272 | 203.0 | 237-316 | 29 | 60.4 | 22-43 |