Table 1 Total number of cases, peak number of cases and peak day under different control measures
Scenario ID | Compliance level | Probability of outbreak (%) | Total cases | Compared with N(%) | 95% CI | Peak cases | Compared with N(%) | 95% CI | Peak day | Compared with N(%) | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | Â | > 99 | 5703 | Â | 5539-5872 | 308 | Â | 274-345 | 31 | Â | 22-44 |
| Â | 25% | 99 | 5709 | 100.1 | 5522-5913 | 309 | 100.3 | 280-354 | 30 | 96.8 | 23-39 |
A | 50% | 100 | 5706 | 100.1 | 5537-5879 | 307 | 99.7 | 272-344 | 31 | 100.0 | 23-44 |
| Â | 75% | 100 | 5701 | 100.0 | 5481-5921 | 307 | 99.7 | 264-346 | 31 | 100.0 | 23-44 |
| Â | 100% | 98% | 5695 | 99.9 | 5533-5890 | 308 | 100.0 | 271-349 | 32 | 103.2 | 23-51 |
S | 100% | 100 | 5461 | 95.8 | 5233-5666 | 219 | 71.1 | 187-256 | 39 | 125.8 | 30-51 |
| Â | 25% | 100 | 5403 | 94.7 | 5138-5583 | 277 | 89.9 | 244-307 | 34 | 109.7 | 23-51 |
H | 50% | 93 | 4992 | 87.5 | 4758-5215 | 244 | 79.2 | 215-278 | 35 | 112.9 | 23-51 |
| Â | 75% | 94 | 4428 | 77.6 | 4199-4704 | 204 | 66.2 | 178-243 | 41 | 132.3 | 23-65 |
| Â | 100% | 68 | 3635 | 63.7 | 3376-3843 | 158 | 51.3 | 131-192 | 46 | 148.4 | 29-84 |
AS | 50%, 100% | > 99 | 5449 | 95.5 | 5240-5648 | 222 | 72.1 | 192-253 | 39 | 125.8 | 30-51 |
AH | 50%, 50% | 97 | 5000 | 87.7 | 4754-5244 | 243 | 78.9 | 209-276 | 35 | 112.9 | 23-51 |
HS | 50%, 100% | 97 | 4494 | 78.8 | 4219-4781 | 134 | 43.5 | 107-160 | 48 | 154.8 | 36-71 |
AHS | 50%, 50%, 100% | 97 | 4453 | 78.1 | 4008-4753 | 135 | 43.8 | 104-162 | 51 | 164.5 | 36-79 |