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Table 3 Selected results of sensitivity analysis

From: Comparative evaluation of the potential impact of rotavirus versus hpv vaccination in GAVI-eligible countries: A preliminary analysis focused on the relative disease burden

Parameters/Assumptions varied Outcome measures Rotavirus HPV
Part (a): One-way sensitivity analysis (Results for a single country, using India as a representative example)
Vaccination cost per individual ICER (I$/DALY averted)   
   I$5   16 saving
   I$25 (base-case)   212 293
   I$50   457 710
Incidence of rotavirus deaths ICER (I$/DALY averted)   
   80% of base-case   273 NA
   100% (base-case)   212 NA
   120% of base-case   171 NA
Incidence of cervical cancer ICER (I$/DALY averted)   
   80% of base-case   NA 429
   100% (base-case)   NA 293
   120% of base-case   NA 203
Ratio of hospitalization to deaths associated with rotavirus ICER (I$/DALY averted)   
   80% of base-case   215 NA
   100% (base-case)   212 NA
   120% of base-case   209 NA
Proportion of deaths among incident cervical cancer cases ICER (I$/DALY averted)   
   50%   NA 460
   80% (base-case)   NA 293
   90%   NA 261
Vaccine efficacy ICER (I$/DALY averted)   
   80% of base-case   273 397
   base-case   212 293
   120% of base-case   171 NA
Discount rate ICER (I$/DALY averted)   
   0%   92 saving
   3% (base-case)   212 293
   6%   377 1,609
Treatment costs ICER (I$/DALY averted)   
   75% of base-case   220 324
   100% (base-case)   212 293
   125% of base-case   204 262
Part (b): One-way/Two-way sensitivity analysis (Aggregated results across the GAVI-eligible countries)
Discount rate Years of life saved   
   r = 0%   15,740,674 6,030,585
   r = 3% (base-case)   7,121,323 1,266,029
   r = 6%   4,025,413 323,398
Discount rate Total incremental costs, I$   
   r = 0%   1,137,130,971 66,938,177
   r = 3% (base-case)   1,106,950,990 422,123,822
   r = 6%   1,078,274,716 494,334,220
[Discount rate, type of age weight] DALYs averted   
   [r = 0%, K = 0]   15,767,404 6,191,573
   [r = 3%, K = 0] (base-case)   7,146,859 1,304,426
   [r = 0%, K = 1]   18,920,531 4,847,082
   [r = 3%, K = 1]   8,121,119 1,148,295
[Discount rate, type of age weight] No. of countries that belong to each of the cost-effectiveness categories below (at the cost of I$25 per vaccinated individual): [cost-saving, very cost-effective, cost-effective, non-cost-effective]   
   [r = 0%, K = 0]   [0,71,1,0] [23,49,0,0]
   [r = 3%, K = 0] (base-case)   [0,68,4,0] [0,66,6,0]
   [r = 0%, K = 1]   [0,71,1,0] [23,49,0,0]
   [r = 3%, K = 1]   [0,68,4,0] [0,66,5,1]
Part (c): Scenario analysis (or multi-way sensitivity analysis) (Aggregated results across the GAVI-eligible countries)
Scenarios (defined by different combinations of different values of the following parameters, with other parameter values set at the base-case values):
- Vaccination costs, I$10, I$25, I$50
- Vaccine efficacy, 80%-/+20%
- Disease-specific mortality rates
No. of countries that belong to each of the cost-effectiveness categories below
[cost-saving, very cost-effective, cost-effective, non-cost-effective]
  
Scenario 1 (worst case)
- Vaccination costs: I$50
- Vaccine efficacy: 80% of base-case
- Mortality rates: 80% of base-case
  [0,62,6,4] [0,40,25,7]
Scenario 2
- Vaccination costs: I$25
- Vaccine efficacy: 80% of base-case
- Mortality rates: 80% of base-case
  [0,67,4,1] [0,60,10,2]
Scenario 3 (base-case)
- Vaccination costs: I$25
- Vaccine efficacy: base-case
- Mortality rates: base-case
  [0,68,4,0] [0,66,6,0]
Scenario 4
- Vaccination costs: I$25
- Vaccine efficacy: 120% of base-case
- Mortality rates: 120% of base-case
  [0,69,3,0] [1,69,2,0]
Scenario 5 (best case)
- Vaccination costs: I$10
- Vaccine efficacy: 120% of base-case
- Mortality rates: 120% of base-case
  [5,67,0,0] [22,50,0,0]
  1. r = discount rate, K = 0: uniform age weight, K = 1: non-uniform age weight. DALY = disability-adjusted life year.