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Table 3 Selected results of sensitivity analysis

From: Comparative evaluation of the potential impact of rotavirus versus hpv vaccination in GAVI-eligible countries: A preliminary analysis focused on the relative disease burden

Parameters/Assumptions varied

Outcome measures

Rotavirus

HPV

Part (a): One-way sensitivity analysis (Results for a single country, using India as a representative example)

Vaccination cost per individual

ICER (I$/DALY averted)

  

   I$5

 

16

saving

   I$25 (base-case)

 

212

293

   I$50

 

457

710

Incidence of rotavirus deaths

ICER (I$/DALY averted)

  

   80% of base-case

 

273

NA

   100% (base-case)

 

212

NA

   120% of base-case

 

171

NA

Incidence of cervical cancer

ICER (I$/DALY averted)

  

   80% of base-case

 

NA

429

   100% (base-case)

 

NA

293

   120% of base-case

 

NA

203

Ratio of hospitalization to deaths associated with rotavirus

ICER (I$/DALY averted)

  

   80% of base-case

 

215

NA

   100% (base-case)

 

212

NA

   120% of base-case

 

209

NA

Proportion of deaths among incident cervical cancer cases

ICER (I$/DALY averted)

  

   50%

 

NA

460

   80% (base-case)

 

NA

293

   90%

 

NA

261

Vaccine efficacy

ICER (I$/DALY averted)

  

   80% of base-case

 

273

397

   base-case

 

212

293

   120% of base-case

 

171

NA

Discount rate

ICER (I$/DALY averted)

  

   0%

 

92

saving

   3% (base-case)

 

212

293

   6%

 

377

1,609

Treatment costs

ICER (I$/DALY averted)

  

   75% of base-case

 

220

324

   100% (base-case)

 

212

293

   125% of base-case

 

204

262

Part (b): One-way/Two-way sensitivity analysis (Aggregated results across the GAVI-eligible countries)

Discount rate

Years of life saved

  

   r = 0%

 

15,740,674

6,030,585

   r = 3% (base-case)

 

7,121,323

1,266,029

   r = 6%

 

4,025,413

323,398

Discount rate

Total incremental costs, I$

  

   r = 0%

 

1,137,130,971

66,938,177

   r = 3% (base-case)

 

1,106,950,990

422,123,822

   r = 6%

 

1,078,274,716

494,334,220

[Discount rate, type of age weight]

DALYs averted

  

   [r = 0%, K = 0]

 

15,767,404

6,191,573

   [r = 3%, K = 0] (base-case)

 

7,146,859

1,304,426

   [r = 0%, K = 1]

 

18,920,531

4,847,082

   [r = 3%, K = 1]

 

8,121,119

1,148,295

[Discount rate, type of age weight]

No. of countries that belong to each of the cost-effectiveness categories below (at the cost of I$25 per vaccinated individual): [cost-saving, very cost-effective, cost-effective, non-cost-effective]

  

   [r = 0%, K = 0]

 

[0,71,1,0]

[23,49,0,0]

   [r = 3%, K = 0] (base-case)

 

[0,68,4,0]

[0,66,6,0]

   [r = 0%, K = 1]

 

[0,71,1,0]

[23,49,0,0]

   [r = 3%, K = 1]

 

[0,68,4,0]

[0,66,5,1]

Part (c): Scenario analysis (or multi-way sensitivity analysis) (Aggregated results across the GAVI-eligible countries)

Scenarios (defined by different combinations of different values of the following parameters, with other parameter values set at the base-case values):

- Vaccination costs, I$10, I$25, I$50

- Vaccine efficacy, 80%-/+20%

- Disease-specific mortality rates

No. of countries that belong to each of the cost-effectiveness categories below

[cost-saving, very cost-effective, cost-effective, non-cost-effective]

  

Scenario 1 (worst case)

- Vaccination costs: I$50

- Vaccine efficacy: 80% of base-case

- Mortality rates: 80% of base-case

 

[0,62,6,4]

[0,40,25,7]

Scenario 2

- Vaccination costs: I$25

- Vaccine efficacy: 80% of base-case

- Mortality rates: 80% of base-case

 

[0,67,4,1]

[0,60,10,2]

Scenario 3 (base-case)

- Vaccination costs: I$25

- Vaccine efficacy: base-case

- Mortality rates: base-case

 

[0,68,4,0]

[0,66,6,0]

Scenario 4

- Vaccination costs: I$25

- Vaccine efficacy: 120% of base-case

- Mortality rates: 120% of base-case

 

[0,69,3,0]

[1,69,2,0]

Scenario 5 (best case)

- Vaccination costs: I$10

- Vaccine efficacy: 120% of base-case

- Mortality rates: 120% of base-case

 

[5,67,0,0]

[22,50,0,0]

  1. r = discount rate, K = 0: uniform age weight, K = 1: non-uniform age weight. DALY = disability-adjusted life year.