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Table 3 Characteristics of univariate and multivariate models using climatic variables the most correlated to dengue incidence: Coefficients, standard error and p-value of parameters, AIC, RMSE for predictions of the year 2007 3 months-ahead, * p-value < 0.05 significant

From: Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

SARIMA model Coefficients Standard error T- statistic P-value AIC RMSE
Univariate model      951 0.85
Relative humidity _lag7 1.445 1.423 1.016 0.309 951 0.76
Minimum temperature _lag5 0.108* 0.068 1.593 0.030 950 0.72
Average temperature _lag11 0.228* 0.102 2.235 0.025 948 0.74