Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

Table 2 Characteristics of SARIMA models for climatic variables: coefficients, standard errors of residuals, AIC: Akaike information criterion, p-value after Ljung-Box test of residuals

Climatic variables	SARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)_Smodel	AR1	MA1	SMA	Sd (residuals)	AIC	p-value (Ljung-box test)
Accumulated rainfall	(1,1,1) (0,1,1)₅₂	0.154*	-0.980*	-1.00*	0.85	942.78	0.32 (NS)
Relative humidity	(1,1,1) (0,0,0)₅₂	0.207*	-0.632*	_	0.039	-1320	0.307 (NS)
Minimum temperature	(0,0,1) (0,1,1₎₅₂	0.249*	_	-1.00*	0.67	785.69	0.61 (NS)
Maximun temperature	(1,1,1) (0,1,1)₅₂	0.439*	-0.918*	-1.00*	0.473	576.63	0.566 (NS)
Average temperature	(1,1,1) (0,1,1)₅₂	0.310*	-0.927*	-0.897*	0.473	556.92	0.566 (NS)

AR: autoregressive, MA: moving average, SMA: seasonal moving average, *:p-value < 0.05 significant.

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