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Table 2 Characteristics of SARIMA models for climatic variables: coefficients, standard errors of residuals, AIC: Akaike information criterion, p-value after Ljung-Box test of residuals

From: Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

Climatic variables

SARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q) S model

AR1

MA1

SMA

Sd (residuals)

AIC

p-value (Ljung-box test)

Accumulated rainfall

(1,1,1) (0,1,1) 52

0.154*

-0.980*

-1.00*

0.85

942.78

0.32 (NS)

Relative humidity

(1,1,1) (0,0,0) 52

0.207*

-0.632*

_

0.039

-1320

0.307 (NS)

Minimum temperature

(0,0,1) (0,1,1)52

0.249*

_

-1.00*

0.67

785.69

0.61 (NS)

Maximun temperature

(1,1,1) (0,1,1) 52

0.439*

-0.918*

-1.00*

0.473

576.63

0.566 (NS)

Average temperature

(1,1,1) (0,1,1) 52

0.310*

-0.927*

-0.897*

0.473

556.92

0.566 (NS)

  1. AR: autoregressive, MA: moving average, SMA: seasonal moving average, *:p-value < 0.05 significant.