Climatic variables
|
SARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)
S
model
|
AR1
|
MA1
|
SMA
|
Sd (residuals)
|
AIC
|
p-value (Ljung-box test)
|
---|
Accumulated rainfall
|
(1,1,1) (0,1,1)
52
|
0.154*
|
-0.980*
|
-1.00*
|
0.85
|
942.78
|
0.32 (NS)
|
Relative humidity
|
(1,1,1) (0,0,0)
52
|
0.207*
|
-0.632*
|
_
|
0.039
|
-1320
|
0.307 (NS)
|
Minimum temperature
|
(0,0,1) (0,1,1)52
|
0.249*
|
_
|
-1.00*
|
0.67
|
785.69
|
0.61 (NS)
|
Maximun temperature
|
(1,1,1) (0,1,1)
52
|
0.439*
|
-0.918*
|
-1.00*
|
0.473
|
576.63
|
0.566 (NS)
|
Average temperature
|
(1,1,1) (0,1,1)
52
|
0.310*
|
-0.927*
|
-0.897*
|
0.473
|
556.92
|
0.566 (NS)
|
- AR: autoregressive, MA: moving average, SMA: seasonal moving average, *:p-value < 0.05 significant.