Figure 5

Natural logarithm of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe for 2007. Solid line (filled circle): observed values during the period. Red (triangle): univariate SARIMA (0,1,1) × (0,1,1)52 model's 13 weeks ahead values. Blue (circles): multivariate SARIMA (0,1,1) × (0,1,1)52 model's 13 weeks ahead values with minimum temperature lag-5.