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Table 3 Resulting incidence from simulations of scenarios.

From: Increasing risk behaviour can outweigh the benefits of antiretroviral drug treatment on the HIV incidence among men-having-sex-with-men in Amsterdam

Year

Simulated incidence

 

RS*

P1

P2

P3

P4

P5

2010

1.61423

1.76164

1.62148

1.7568

1.8583

2.18211

 

-

9.13% ↑

0.45% ↑

8.83% ↑

15.12% ↑

35.18% ↑

2015

1.69397

1.77855

1.68189

1.75922

1.87763

2.15311

 

-

4.99% ↑

0.71% ↓

3.85% ↑

10.84% ↑

27.1% ↑

2020

1.73505

1.79063

1.50065

1.56831

1.84138

2.0057

 

-

3.2% ↑

13.51% ↓

9.61% ↓

6.13% ↑

15.6% ↑

2025

1.60215

1.77855

1.54657

1.57556

1.59248

1.71331

 

-

11.01% ↑

3.47% ↓

1.66% ↓

0.6% ↓

6.94% ↑

2030

1.63356

1.81238

1.44991

1.40399

1.52482

1.64081

 

-

10.95% ↑

11.24% ↓

14.05% ↓

6.66% ↓

0.44% ↑

2035

1.5804

1.76647

1.16476

1.41124

1.42816

1.66739

 

-

11.77% ↑

26.3% ↓

10.7% ↓

9.63% ↓

5.5% ↑

2040

1.59973

1.64564

1.14059

1.3025

1.37016

1.57556

 

-

2.87% ↑

28.7% ↓

18.58% ↓

14.35% ↓

1.51%↓

  1. Data points of incidence, taken at 5-year intervals after 2005 from the results of scenarios simulations, are listed and compared. In each year the incidence resulting from every prediction scenario is compared percentagewise to that of the reference scenario (*), respectively.