Table 1 Simulated infection rates during a second pandemic influenza H1N1 season according to persistent cross-protection and increasing vaccine coverage

90

2.35 (0.66-2.85)

1.76 (0.48-2.49)

0.29 (0.12-0.36)

1.65 (0.51-2.31)

1.42 (0.53-1.89)

1.11 (0.31-1.35)

0.16 (0.06-0.18)

1.02 (0.35-1.35)

0.68 (0.26-0.88)

0.59 (0.20-0.72)

0.10 (0.00-0.12)

0.53 (0.23-0.66)

0.30 (0.13-0.39)

0.26 (0.12-0.30)

0.05 (0.00-0.06)

0.23 (0.13-0.26)

1.05 (0.39-1.58)

1.40 (0.33-1.86)

0.21 (0.06-0.30)

1.12 (0.34-1.44)

0.65 (0.26-0.88)

1.21 (0.33-1.70)

0.14 (0.00-0.18)

0.91 (0.27-1.21)

0.40 (0.13-0.57)

1.26 (0.31-1.94)

0.16 (0.06-0.24)

0.88 (0.24-1.32)

70

14.0 (11.2-18.4)

10.3 (7.33-14.3)

2.65 (1.94-3.63)

9.91 (7.29-13.9)

8.44 (2.68-13.8)

6.17 (1.66-10.4)

1.56 (0.55-2.48)

5.92 (1.71-9.82)

3.51 (0.83-5.04)

2.81 (0.59-3.94)

0.66 (0.18-0.97)

2.61 (0.59-3.65)

1.24 (0.48-1.62)

1.13 (0.30-1.20)

0.29 (0.06-0.36)

1.02 (0.32-1.18)

6.20 (1.54-9.96)

6.05 (1.63-10.2)

1.45 (0.42-2.42)

5.32 (1.37-8.78)

4.76 (1.36-7.11)

6.56 (1.45-10.2)

1.46 (0.42-2.18)

5.31 (1.31-8.39)

2.73 (0.66-4.30)

4.61 (0.69-8.14)

1.06 (0.18-1.76)

3.60 (0.63-6.20)

50

33.2 (30.9-36.3)

23.1 (20.7-25.8)

8.85 (7.70-10.1)

23.1 (20.7-25.2)

29.4 (26.3-33.3)

21.3 (18.4-24.3)

7.99 (7.09-9.03)

20.9 (18.6-23.5)

20.2 (18.1-25.4)

15.5 (12.0-20.4)

5.76 (4.73-7.27)

15.0 (12.4-19.2)

14.0 (9.91-19.4)

11.6 (6.95-15.5)

4.16 (2.55-5.82)

10.9 (0.69-15.2)

25.6 (23.8-28.4)

20.9 (18.4-24.2)

7.82 (6.91-8.97)

19.8 (18.0-22.8)

21.4 (19.6-24.6)

19.5 (16.4-22.8)

7.13 (6.42-8.18)

17.9 (15.6-20.6)

17.3 (14.9-21.8)

18.7 (16.0-23.7)

6.47 (5.33-8.24)

16.4 (13.7-20.7)

30

49.7 (48.3-51.4)

35.2 (32.5-37.8)

16.6 (15.2-17.9)

35.4 (33.2-37.5)

46.5 (44.9-48.9)

34.0 (31.6-36.3)

15.7 (14.4-17.0)

33.8 (32.3-36.2)

43.6 (41.3-45.9)

31.7 (28.9-33.7)

14.7 (13.6-15.8)

31.6 (29.1-33.4)

39.7 (37.5-42.5)

29.1 (27.2-31.6)

13.7 (12.8-14.5)

29.0 (27.3-31.1)

45.1 (43.0-47.1)

34.6 (32.4-36.9)

15.9 (14.9-16.9)

33.9 (31.9-35.8)

41.7 (40.2-44.0)

32.6 (30.3-35.3)

15.1 (13.9-16.6)

31.8 (30.2-34.0)

39.8 (37.7-42.4)

32.8 (30.0-36.0)

15.2 (14.1-16.4)

31.5 (29.2-34.2)