Simulated effect of pneumococcal vaccination in the Netherlands on existing rules constructed in a non-vaccinated cohort predicting sequelae after bacterial meningitis

Table 3 Independent predictors of academic or behavioral limitations after bacterial meningitis.

Variable	Regression coefficient	Odds ratio (95% CI)	Contribution to risk score
Male gender	1.7	5.8 (2.3-14.5)	38
Birth weight ≤3000 gram	1.5	4.5 (1.7-12.1)	33
Educational level father^a
Lower education	2.0	7.3 (2.1-25.3)	43
Middle education	1.7	5.3 (1.6-17.1)	36
Higher education	RC		0
S. pneumoniae as causative pathogen	1.9	6.9 (1.7-28.3)	42
CSF leukocyte count/10000 cells (/3 mm³)	-0.5	0.6 (0.4-0.9)	-10
Delay of more than 6 hours between admission and start of antibiotics	2.4	11.2 (1.6-76.4)	53
Dexamethasone
≤ 2 days	1.0	2.8 (0.5-14.1)	22
> 2 days	-0.8	0.4 (0.2-1.2)	-19
no	RC		0
Seizures treated with anticonvulsive therapy	-2.9	0.1 (0.0-0.4)	-62
Prolonged fever (> 9 days)	3.6	37.8 (3.3-435.6)	79

Score = 38 × Male gender + 33 × Birth weight ≤ 3000 gram + 43 × lower educational level father + 36 × middle educational level father + 42 × S. Pneumoniae - 10 × CSF leukocyte count/10000 cells (/3 mm³) + 53 × delay of more than 6 hours between admission and start of antibiotics + 22 × Dexamethasone ≤ 2 day - 19 × Dexamethasone > 2 days - 62 × Seizures treated with anticonvulsive therapy + 79 × prolonged fever.
AUC of the regression model: 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.78-0.90)
RC = reference category; CSF = Cerebrospinal fluid.
^a Lower education = lower administrative or technical education (or less), middle education = secondary education, higher education = college or university education.

ISSN: 1471-2334