Table 1 Model parameters, together with baseline value and range if varied during analysis.
Parameter | Description | Value (Range) | Refs |
|---|---|---|---|
g E | Rate of transition from latent to prodromal | 1/12 days-1 | [14] |
g P | Rate of transition from prodromal to infectious | 1/2.5 days-1 | [15] |
g I | Rate of transition from infectious to removed | 1/8.6 days-1 | [16] |
δ | Case fatality risk | 30% | |
θ | Probability of case isolation success | 90% | [21] |
g Q | Rate of transition from isolated to removed | 1/20 days-1 | [5] |
ϵ | Probability of contact tracing success | 80% | [5] |
ϵ1 | Vaccine efficacy when susceptible | 97.5% | [14] |
ϵ2 | Vaccine efficacy when latent | 30% | [23] |
g O | Rate of transition from observed to removed or vaccinated | 1/15 days-1 | [5] |
γ | Proportion of population contraindicated for mass vaccination | 30% | [25] |
E 0 | Number of index cases | 10 | see text |
| Number of index cases for secondary outbreak | 1 | see text |
I trig | Number of clinical cases prior to detection | 4 | see text |
| Number of clinical cases prior to detection for secondary outbreak | 1 | see text |
δ V | Vaccine fatality risk | 10-5(0 -- 10-5) | [24] |
R 0 | Basic reproductive ratio | 5 (3 -- 7) | [14] |
R P | Prodromal type reproductive ratio | 0.5 (0.1 -- 1.5) | |
κ | Movement reductions when infectious | 0.9 (0 -- 1) | [5] |
v | Rate of mass vaccination | N/7 (see Figure 3(c)) | see text |
N | Population size of region | 105(see Figure 3(a)) | |
ξ | Region outwardness | 0.4 (see Figure 3(d)) | |
M | Number of regions of same type as outbreak region | n/a (see Figure 3(a)) | |
M 0 | Number of regions at relevant scale initially infected | 1 (1 -- 10) | see text |
n | Neighbourhood size (contacts per individual) | 17 (5 -- 50) | |
Ï• | Clustering coefficient | 0 (0 -- 0.5) | see text |
