Figure 5
Epidemic profiles and geography. Geographic variation of the epidemic profiles for GLEaM and the agent-based model at the level of the major urban areas in Italy: a) profiles for a selected number of Italian subpopulations distributed from North to South and in the Islands. Time is expressed in days since the first importation of infected individuals in Italy. Average profiles for the scenario with R 0 = 1.9 are shown; b) difference of the epidemic size as a fraction the population size (top row) and peak shift measured in days (bottom row) between GLEaM and the agent-based model at the level of GLEaM geographical census areas as functions of: the latitude of the geographical census area (left); its population size (center); and the traffic of the airport associated to the geographical census area (right). Results for R 0 = 1.9 are shown.