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Table 3 Base-case and sensitivity analysis results

From: Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic

Analysis Values Cases avoided Deaths averted Cost (savings) in billions of $
Base-case -- 4,726,000 108,500 (7.34)
Re-calibrated using current non-pandemic incidence distribution by age -- 4,430,000 73,100 (4.8)
Incidence and case-fatality of bacteremic pneumonia - reduced by 50% -- 3,873,000 39,600 (4.09)
Case-fatality rates for IPD and pneumonia - increased to 20%   -- 201,000 (7.33)
Herd effect on pneumonia     
   Low (0%) 0% 4,106,000 59,600 (5.61)
   High16 15% - 26% 5,345,000 157,300 (9.07)
Incidence of IPD (per 100,000)     
   Low (-10%) 296 - 8,365 4,689,000 102,700 (6.77)
   High (+10%) 383 - 10,224 4,763,000 114,200 (7.90)
Incidence of all-cause pneumonia (per 100,000)     
   Low (-10%) 5 - 165 4,681,000 103,700 (7.17)
   High (+10%) 7 - 202 4,770,000 113,300 (7.50)
Vaccine effectiveness on AOM (<2 Yr)     
   Low21 6% 2,687,000 -- (6.81)
   High27 42% 10,444,000 -- (8.80)
Vaccine coverage (<2)     
   Low (-10%) 78% 4,661,000 107,900 (7.40)
   High (+10%) 96% 4,790,000 109,000 (7.27)
Price of vaccine     
   Low (-10%) $68.78 -- -- (7.44)
   High (+10%) $84.06 -- -- (7.24)
Influenza treatment     
   Low (-10%) 8% - 16% 4,728,000 -- (7.34)
   High (+10%) 14% - 26% 4,725,000 -- (7.34)
Case-fatality from IPD     
   Low (-10%) 0.8% - 25% -- 102,400 --
   High (+10%) 0.9% - 30% -- 114,500 --
Case-fatality from all-cause pneumonia     
   Low (-10%) 0.4% - 4.7% -- 103,700 --
   High (+10%) 0.5% - 6% -- 113,300 --
  1. IPD = invasive pneumococcal disease; AOM = acute otitis media