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Table 3 Base-case and sensitivity analysis results

From: Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic

Analysis

Values

Cases avoided

Deaths averted

Cost (savings) in billions of $

Base-case

--

4,726,000

108,500

(7.34)

Re-calibrated using current non-pandemic incidence distribution by age

--

4,430,000

73,100

(4.8)

Incidence and case-fatality of bacteremic pneumonia - reduced by 50%

--

3,873,000

39,600

(4.09)

Case-fatality rates for IPD and pneumonia - increased to 20%

 

--

201,000

(7.33)

Herd effect on pneumonia

    

   Low (0%)

0%

4,106,000

59,600

(5.61)

   High16

15% - 26%

5,345,000

157,300

(9.07)

Incidence of IPD (per 100,000)

    

   Low (-10%)

296 - 8,365

4,689,000

102,700

(6.77)

   High (+10%)

383 - 10,224

4,763,000

114,200

(7.90)

Incidence of all-cause pneumonia (per 100,000)

    

   Low (-10%)

5 - 165

4,681,000

103,700

(7.17)

   High (+10%)

7 - 202

4,770,000

113,300

(7.50)

Vaccine effectiveness on AOM (<2 Yr)

    

   Low21

6%

2,687,000

--

(6.81)

   High27

42%

10,444,000

--

(8.80)

Vaccine coverage (<2)

    

   Low (-10%)

78%

4,661,000

107,900

(7.40)

   High (+10%)

96%

4,790,000

109,000

(7.27)

Price of vaccine

    

   Low (-10%)

$68.78

--

--

(7.44)

   High (+10%)

$84.06

--

--

(7.24)

Influenza treatment

    

   Low (-10%)

8% - 16%

4,728,000

--

(7.34)

   High (+10%)

14% - 26%

4,725,000

--

(7.34)

Case-fatality from IPD

    

   Low (-10%)

0.8% - 25%

--

102,400

--

   High (+10%)

0.9% - 30%

--

114,500

--

Case-fatality from all-cause pneumonia

    

   Low (-10%)

0.4% - 4.7%

--

103,700

--

   High (+10%)

0.5% - 6%

--

113,300

--

  1. IPD = invasive pneumococcal disease; AOM = acute otitis media