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Table 1 Comparisons of the different methods for estimating the daily cumulative dengue cases by absolute relative bias during the 2006-2007 season

From: A dynamic estimation of the daily cumulative cases during infectious disease surveillance: application to dengue fever

   

Absolute Relative Bias†

   

Gamma

Nonparametric

Daily-confirmed

Year

Date

Positive cases

Median

(IQR)

Median

(IQR)

Median

(IQR)

2006

Jun. 1~Jul. 5

3

440.3%

(57.8%)

363.6%

(50.5%)

100.0%

(0%)

 

Jul. 6*~Jul. 31

50

5.7%

(13.2%)

8.5%

(10.9%)

67.7%

(19.1%)

 

Aug. 1~Aug. 31

108

5.8%

(11.2%)

5.3%

(8.7%)

30.1%

(9.8%)

 

Sep. 1~Sep. 30

173

6.9%

(2.2%)

4.0%

(1.7%)

21.7%

(3.0%)

 

Oct. 1~Oct. 31

291

6.7%

(5.6%)

5.9%

(5.8%)

17.3%

(2.9%)

 

Nov. 1~Nov. 30

230

1.5%

(1.2%)

2.3%

(1.3%)

11.9%

(6.0%)

 

Dec. 1~Dec. 31

108

1.7%

(1.5%)

3.0%

(1.9%)

4.7%

(5.3%)

2007

Jan. 1~Jan. 31

13

1.4%

(0.6%)

3.9%

(0.3%)

0.8%

(0.8%)

 

Feb. 1~Feb. 28

0

0.9%

(0.2%)

3.7%

(0.2%)

-

 
 

Mar. 1~Mar. 31

3

0.5%

(0.3%)

3.5%

(0.4%)

0.1%

(0.2%)

 

Apr. 1~Apr. 30

0

0.6%

(0.3%)

3.9%

(0.3%)

-

 
  1. * The first confirmed positive dengue case appeared on July 6, 2006.
  2. † Absolute relative bias (ARB) is calculated by the absolute value of the differences between the estimated and the expected daily cumulative cases divided by the expected daily cumulative cases. See text for details. An ARB closer to zero is a more accurate estimate.