Table 3 Expected numbers (from model with maximum likelihood parameter estimates) and observed numbers of persons reporting symptoms in each of the three waves
From: Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-9
POPULATION | N | SAW | SA - | S -W | S - - | -AW | - A - | - - W | - - - |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Shields | 462 | 0.08 0.00 | 0.90 1.00 | 1.73 1.00 | 12.73 12.00 | 2.26 3.00 | 24.30 24.00 | 33.25 31.00 | 386.74 390.00 |
Leicester | 4619 | 1.02 2.00 | 16.75 14.00 | 27.80 22.00 | 271.80 287.00 | 37.40 37.00 | 613.20 609.00 | 314.53 323.00 | 3336.50 3325.00 |
Wigan | 1075 | 0.02 1.00 | 0.69 0.00 | 1.99 0.00 | 46.64 44.00 | 1.74 2.00 | 73.84 79.00 | 99.85 117.00 | 850.23 832.00 |
Newcastle | 4461 | 0.41 2.00 | 5.26 2.00 | 33.22 39.00 | 237.09 234.00 | 16.55 17.00 | 211.94 208.00 | 322.86 326.00 | 3633.67 3633.00 |
Manchester | 4686 | 1.84 3.00 | 66.94 67.00 | 23.49 26.00 | 619.65 613.00 | 10.49 11.00 | 381.88 392.00 | 80.22 73.00 | 3501.50 3501.00 |
Blackburn | 1284 | 0.37 1.00 | 5.34 7.00 | 11.64 6.00 | 104.12 97.00 | 5.63 10.00 | 81.97 72.00 | 84.54 83.00 | 990.39 1008.00 |
Widnes | 3417 | 0.40 0.00 | 10.66 14.00 | 25.40 21.00 | 382.55 388.00 | 9.84 8.00 | 261.65 266.00 | 346.08 340.00 | 2380.43 2380.00 |
London police | 746 | 0.18 0.00 | 5.81 4.00 | 1.82 0.00 | 41.69 46.00 | 3.49 5.00 | 115.47 108.00 | 16.96 24.00 | 560.58 559.00 |
Cambridge Uni | 1766 | 3.00 8.00 | 44.08 33.00 | 33.42 17.00 | 341.88 365.00 | 25.59 38.00 | 375.38 368.00 | 135.31 130.00 | 807.33 807.00 |
Clifton College | 451 | 14.43 13.00 | 19.26 9.00 | 73.26 71.00 | 51.85 69.00 | 38.87 61.00 | 51.88 38.00 | 86.61 85.00 | 114.84 105.00 |
Haileybury | 515 | 8.98 10.00 | 27.38 31.00 | 45.68 22.00 | 96.60 117.00 | 19.19 25.00 | 58.47 48.00 | 87.76 106.00 | 170.94 156.00 |
Finchley School | 1224 | 0.28 0.00 | 18.05 18.00 | 2.41 5.00 | 111.70 111.00 | 5.68 4.00 | 372.76 383.00 | 26.62 29.00 | 686.50 674.00 |
TOTAL | 24706 | 31.01 40.00 | 221.12 200.00 | 281.88 230.00 | 2318.31 2383.00 | 176.70 221.00 | 2622.77 2595.00 | 1634.57 1667.00 | 17419.64 17370.00 |